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At first glance, calculating betting odds seems to be a complex task, but at second glance, it is actually very simple mathematics: betting odds are used to express the probability of a certain event occurring. This probability is expressed by the bookmaker in the form of so-called odds.
The first step in calculating betting odds is to understand the concept of probability. It is usually expressed as a decimal number or a percentage.
For example, if the probability of it snowing tomorrow is 50 percent, this can be expressed as 0.5 or 50%. However, the bookmaker will not write that the probability of Borussia Dortmund winning against TSG Hoffenheim is 50%, but will express this in the form of odds.
Converting a probability into odds
Once you have a basic understanding of probability, you can use it to calculate betting odds.
To calculate decimal odds, you first need an estimate of the probability of an event and divide 1 by the probability.
For example, let’s say the probability of Borussia Dortmund winning against Hoffenheim is 55%. What should the odds look like if we want to convert our probability into odds?
The calculation is as follows: 1 / 0.55 = 1.82
Converting odds into a probability
If a bookmaker offers you odds of 2.0 for Borussia Dortmund to win against Hoffenheim, what odds will they give Dortmund to win against TSG?
The calculation is as follows: 1 / odds of 2.0 x 100 = 50%
Once you have calculated the odds, you can use them to make informed betting decisions.
One of the most important things to remember is that the higher the odds, the less likely the outcome.
This means that you should be more cautious when placing a bet at high odds. Even if you place bets with value, it can take a long time before you can convert your advantage into money due to the low probability of occurrence.
What are value odds?
Value is when the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the odds they have calculated themselves.
Let’s take the example from above again: Dortmund play Hoffenheim. We believe that our probability of 55% is more likely to be true than the bookmaker’s probability of 50%.
If we are correct in our assessment, any odds above 1.82 are a value bet for us that will make us money in the long term. Betting the 2.0 that the bookmaker offers us is therefore a value bet in our eyes.
It is advisable to compare different bookmakers to find the best odds: Another important point is that not all bookmakers offer the same odds for a particular event or outcome. It is therefore important to look around and compare the odds of different bookmakers. This way you can find the best odds and increase your chances of winning.
In addition to calculating the odds, it is important to find out about the teams, players and events you are betting on. This allows you to get an idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams and players and make more informed betting decisions.
It is also important to keep up to date with the latest news and developments in the world of sport, as this can have a big impact on the odds and the outcome of the event.